Today is the big day!

No, not the start of the NBA Finals. Who cares about that? Today is the day that I make my NBA Finals predictions.

In all honesty, this has been the most difficult playoff prediction that I’ve ever had to make. Why? Because the teams are so evenly matched in terms of talents, weaknesses, and intangibles.

Both teams have unstoppable 7-footers and up-and-coming perimeter players. Both teams have dependable benches and improved defense. Both teams are peaking at the right time. Both teams are fresh off a mild upset against the previous year’s conference champ. Neither team has won a championship in franchise history.

In fact, these teams are so well matched that I still haven’t fully decided on my pick even as I’m writing this post. Nevertheless, a promise is a promise.

Although both teams are equally matched, there are some key differences. Dirk Nowitzki cannot be guarded by anyone. Not Adonis Haslem, not James Posey, and certainly not Antoine Walker. In fact, Walker won’t be able to guard anyone, especially Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse.

Unless, the Heat is willing to keep a human turnstile on the court, Walker will spend more time on the bench than the team would like. This strips Miami of its best long range threat and third option.
Of course, no one will be able to guard Shaq. Expect him to have his best NBA Finals in years. But the Mavericks have two guys, Diop and Dampier, who can slow him down with straight up defense and 12 fouls. When Shaq leaves the floor, expect the Mavs to go small (putting Nowitzki at center) and take Mourning out of the game.

To be sure, Pat Riley is considerably more experienced and battle-tested than Avery Johnson. Still, Johnson’s attention to detail and ability to connect to his players nearly nullifies the coaching advantage.

In spite of all of this, I’m still inclined to pick the Heat. Why? Because basketball isn’t played on paper. The Heat have Shaq, D-Wade, and a swagger that can overcome a whole host of disadvantages. Also, the Heat have several players and a coach who have NBA Finals experience. Other than Avery Johnson, the Mavericks have none.

Besides, what better storyline would there be than for Shaq, who was cast away by Jerry Buss and Kobe Bryant, to win a championship in his new home?

The aforementioned Heat-favoring factors will get the boys from South Beach to Game 7. Unfortunately, history tells us that the final game goes to the home team. For this reason, and this reason alone, my pick is:

Dallas in 7