Last night, the Miami Heat came within one game of wining their first NBA title. In one of the great playoff games in NBA history, Dwyane Wade willed Miami to an overtime victory over the suddenly reeling Dallas Mavericks.

I’m still not worried.

While it may appear that my “Dallas in 7” prediction is suddenly dubious –as many of my readers/haters have indicated via email and blog comments– the series is going exactly how I expected. Like any seven game series, this year’s finals is filled with momentum shifts, falsely obvious pre-game predictions, and post-game justifications.

Remember how, after game 2, all the “experts” said that the Heat would lose because Dwyane Wade wasn’t ready? Remember how, before game 4, everyone guaranteed that Dirk would have another rough shooting night after game 1?

The key to successful prognostication is not to second-guess oneself by obsessing about the natural ebb and flow of a close series. Instead, it’s best to sit back, relax, and enjoy what has turned into one of the best series in Finals history.

I’m sure that many of you (particularly the Miami loving haters) will argue that I’m merely being stubborn and won’t admit that I was wrong. Here’s why I disagree:

• The home team has won every game in this series. The final two games are in Dallas. While history tells us that there is always a road victory (perhaps the best argument against Dallas), the stakes are to high for Dallas to falter at home.
• The Mavericks are finally angry. After getting shafted by the league with the Stackhouse suspension, and the refs with the Avery Johnson timeout controversy, Dallas will develop the “us against the world” mentality that stoked the Detroit Pistons two years ago. More importantly, after giving games 3 and 5 back to Miami, the Mavs need to prove to themselves and the world that they’re mentally tough. Trust me, they are.
• Dwyane Wade has proven that he is the best player in the series and maybe the league (It’s the playoffs, let me be hyperbolic!!!). Still, even Michael Jordan needed more help than Dwyane got last night. It’s simply unfair and unreasonable to expect him to put together two more all-world showings. Unfortunately, the Wade cannot singlehandedly carry the Heat to two road victories in Dallas.

My prediction: Dallas in 7 (Still)